ABNA24 - In an commentary, Iranian political expert Ismail Bagheri suggested that the 21st Century marks a turning point in the world developments, since the unipolar world order that took shape after the Soviet Union with the US at its center has gradually lost its functionality.
Earlier in this century, the the US with invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 and then Iraq in 2003 intended to consolidate its hegemony in the world. Such politicians as Condoleezza Rice openly talked about the New Middle East and the Greater Middle East, with central aim being blockading Iran and and reshaping the region in the favor of Washington and its allies. But soon it become clear to American war hawks that military intervention alone could not meet their aims.
Despite force number increase under President Barack Obama, by 2012, the US lost 2,200 of its troops and over 4,000 were injured, finally setting a plan to hand over security to the local forces to schedule a final exit. This loss in Afghanistan marked the first crack in the American hegemony and unipolar world order, showing that the great powers can no longer easily foist their will on the nations using military force.
Next, particularly after the humiliating exit from Afghanistan in 2021, driven by direct talks with the Taliban and the Doha agreement, Washington pivoted from direct warfare to regional powers and proxy actors. It patched together an Arab coalition in the Persian Gulf, pushed the Quad and Asia-Pacific frameworks in East Asia, rolled out the Indo-Pacific strategy in South Asia, and in West Asia, backed takfiri terrorist groups like al-Qaeda, ISIS, and the al-Nusra Front (later Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) to try to weaken independent Syria and Iraq. With covert support from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, and coordination with the Israeli regime, these terrorist factions were utilized to reshape the regional order.
But here too, the US failed to meet its goals: ISIS was crushed, Syria did not collapse, and local resistance, backed by Russia and Iran, thwarted separatist schemes. It is noteworthy that Bashar al-Assad’s fall in 2024 was largely due to his trust in financial aid and reconstruction promises from Arab states like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, a trust that led him to effectively ask Iran to pull its forces out of Syria.
Then came Hamas’s Operation Al-Aqsa Storm on October 7, 2023, and the ensuing war in Gaza, laying bare another dimension of American strategic failure. Through the “Deal of the Century” and the Abraham/I2U2 corridor, the US had sought to normalize Arab ties with Israel and erase Palestine from the region’s agenda. But Hamas’s surprise attack not only torpedoed those plans, but also it proved that even with full military, intelligence, and political backing from the US and European allies like Britain, France, Germany, the Israeli regime could not force a decisive victory.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the rise of regime of Abu Mohammad al-Jolani were also part of an effort to shift the balance in favor of the Western camp, but these tactical changes could not reverse Washington’s long-term strategic decline. The fact is, US deterrence has eroded even among its traditional European allies, and countries like Saudi Arabia are now seeking to balance ties with the East, represented by China and Russia.
This US power decline culminated in the direct military confrontation with the Iran-led Axis of Resistance. The Americans and Israelis naively thought that 12-day war and then martyrdom of the Iran's Supreme Leader Sayyed Ali Khamenei in the February 28 war will knock down the Islamic Republic in a few days. But not only this did not happen, but also Tehran, showing off its missile and drone power and public mobilization, practically tipped the scales in its favor.
Midway through the war, the aggressors was forced to appeal to multiple countries for a ceasefire, and their main goal shrank to “opening the Strait of Hormuz”, even though the strait had previously been under Iran’s undisputed control, with no need to fight for it.
Western military experts, including the RAND Corporation, have admitted that the costs of the attack have spiraled beyond calculated limits, and the US now risks sinking into yet another swamp. The situation made one thing clear and it is that no country, not even an armed superpower, can change the will of a key regional power just by moving an aircraft carrier or issuing military threats.
Taken together, what we have witnessed over the past two decades is the gradual collapse of the order in which “wherever the US raised an eyebrow, governments changed.”
The US decline has unfolded in three distinct phases. First, failure in direct military intervention (Iraq and Afghanistan); second, failure of proxy strategy through regional powers and terrorist organizations like ISIS and al-Qaeda; and finally, failure to succeed in direct confrontation with Iran.
In parallel, a new global order is taking shape—one that is multipolar. China as the economic pole, Russia as the military-energy pole, India as a demographic and tech power, the European Union moving toward strategic independence, and the Islamic Republic of Iran as a key West Asian player with established control over the Strait of Hormuz and the Axis of Resistance.
The day after any future conflict, Iran’s position will not only remain intact, but also it will be cemented as the guarantor of a new regional order.
Iran is resolutely controlling the Strait of Hormuz and does not allow the US warships enter the Persian Gulf once again or sail free towards their bases in the Arab countries. The transition from unipolarity to multipolarity is no longer a hypothesis; it is a reality confirmed every day by the US strategic retreats across the globe.
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